On February 5, 2026, the New START treaty expired without renewal—marking the formal end of the post-Cold War arms control architecture. Three weeks earlier, the Pentagon quietly rebranded itself as the "Department of War" in internal communications. In Brussels, the European Commission's 2028-2034 budget proposal prioritized "European Public Goods" over transatlantic coordination.
These are not isolated events. They are symptoms of a fundamental reordering: the world's leading powers are no longer competing within a shared system—they are building separate ones.
From the rebranding of the Pentagon to China's pursuit of "New Quality Productive Forces," the world's leading think tanks describe a tripartite divergence. The era of the "global village" is over; the era of the "fortress economy" has begun.
The West: Hemispheric Defense and the "Department of War"
The U.S. has entered a phase of "hemispheric retrenchment." The 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS)—a lean, 19-page document—signals a radical departure from decades of American foreign policy.
The "One War" Reality
The Pentagon's new "one war plus burden shifting" model assumes the U.S. will focus almost exclusively on a peer-conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific. Secondary theaters, including Europe, are now the responsibility of local allies.
- The Rebrand: The Department of Defense has been colloquially rebranded as the "Department of War," emphasizing a "warrior ethos" and the elimination of non-combat initiatives.
- The "Golden Dome": A massive expansion of missile defense infrastructure designed to protect the American homeland, targeting a mid-2030s full-scale deployment.
Europe's "Greenlash" and Autonomy
Brussels is no longer waiting for a return to 20th-century Atlanticism. European think tanks like Bruegel report that "strategic autonomy" is now a survival tactic. The "greenlash" of previous years has pivoted climate policy into a subset of "energy sovereignty."
| Initiative | Objective | Key Constraint |
|---|---|---|
| MFF 2028-2034 | Overhaul budget for "European Public Goods" | National tax fragmentation |
| Regime 0 | Europe-wide incorporation for startups | National corporate governance laws |
| Economic Security | Block Chinese EVs and fine U.S. Tech | Balancing trade with security |
Russia: "Expanding Anarchy" and the Attrition Doctrine
In Moscow, the strategic outlook is defined by the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026. With the collapse of traditional arms control, Russian think tanks like RIAC are preparing for a "three-way contest" involving a rapidly nuclearizing China.
The Transparent Battlefield
On the ground, Russian military doctrine has shifted from "active defense" to a "strategy of attrition."
- Drones and EW: The proliferation of pervasive surveillance has created a "transparent battlefield," making surprise nearly impossible and forcing a move toward positional warfare.
- The Iran Variable: Analysts predict a high probability of a U.S. "hit and see" air campaign against Iran's nuclear facilities, a move Moscow views as a catalyst for regional upheaval.
The Attrition Doctrine
Russian military thinking has fundamentally shifted from maneuver warfare to a strategy of attrition. The proliferation of pervasive surveillance—drones, satellites, electronic warfare—has created what Moscow calls the "transparent battlefield," where surprise is nearly impossible. This forces a return to World War I-style positional warfare, where victory is measured in industrial capacity and societal endurance, not tactical brilliance.
China: The 15th Five-Year Plan and the Productivity Bet
Beijing is currently operationalizing the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). The focus is "New Quality Productive Forces"—a shift from "zero-to-one" invention to "one-to-100" industrial scaling.
Industry Over Consumption
A significant internal friction remains: China's massive industrial overcapacity versus its stagnant domestic consumption. Despite calls for reform, the 15-5 Plan prioritizes "national champions" in robotics, 6G, and quantum computing over household welfare.
The Global Consumption Gap (2026 Estimates)
Consumption as % of GDP
By keeping consumption low, Beijing aims to insulate the domestic economy from external volatility, using "Track II diplomacy" to export this development model to the Global South.
The Axis: A Marriage of Asymmetric Necessity
The Sino-Russian relationship has reached $244 billion in annual trade, driven by the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline. However, the "junior partner" dilemma is weighing on Moscow.
Russian strategists are increasingly wary of an "overwhelming economic predominance" by Beijing. This friction is most visible in the Arctic, where Russia asserts sovereignty while China views the "Ice Silk Road" as a commercial commons.
The Junior Partner Dilemma
Moscow's strategic calculus is increasingly strained by Beijing's "overwhelming economic predominance." While the partnership provides Russia with critical economic lifelines and geopolitical leverage against the West, it also risks reducing Russia to a resource appendage of China's industrial machine. This tension is most visible in the Arctic, where Russia's sovereignty claims clash with China's vision of the region as a commercial commons.
The Bottom Line
For policymakers and investors, 2026 offers three distinct "poles" of reality:
The Western "Fortress"
Protecting the single market through aggressive regulation and regional defense.
The Russian "Anarchy"
Leveraging the collapse of global norms to maintain relevance through "strategic patience."
The Chinese "Resilience"
Building a high-tech industrial ecosystem designed to withstand a post-globalization world.
Success in this era requires navigating the "expanding anarchy" not with nostalgia for the old order, but with cold, technical precision.